[
  {
    "id": "p1-dimensions",
    "title": "Differences across six scoring areas",
    "unit": "Non-theist minus religious-side score (area points)",
    "scope": "234 paired, officially weighted comparisons",
    "source": {
      "logicalCoherence": {
        "n": 234,
        "mean": 6.327212936754603,
        "median": 6.238018939393932,
        "sd": 7.3106523844292335,
        "ci": [
          5.385804767493309,
          7.256152805026762
        ],
        "positive": 190,
        "zero": 0,
        "negative": 44
      },
      "evidenceWarrant": {
        "n": 234,
        "mean": 7.598653892403893,
        "median": 7.662537878787894,
        "sd": 7.9839729074854064,
        "ci": [
          6.579745575335158,
          8.616774888807177
        ],
        "positive": 198,
        "zero": 0,
        "negative": 36
      },
      "responsiveness": {
        "n": 234,
        "mean": 5.910228640186975,
        "median": 5.807499999999997,
        "sd": 7.506879186141492,
        "ci": [
          4.948746312792148,
          6.879404225596935
        ],
        "positive": 194,
        "zero": 0,
        "negative": 40
      },
      "relevanceBurden": {
        "n": 234,
        "mean": 2.0735158144324806,
        "median": 1.7478712121212112,
        "sd": 4.098173323748492,
        "ci": [
          1.5506657565428386,
          2.6063644730269706
        ],
        "positive": 163,
        "zero": 0,
        "negative": 71
      },
      "precisionClarity": {
        "n": 234,
        "mean": 4.372705661622328,
        "median": 4.014625000000002,
        "sd": 6.838561741726788,
        "ci": [
          3.4872841291424628,
          5.249016642269768
        ],
        "positive": 173,
        "zero": 1,
        "negative": 60
      },
      "calibrationCharity": {
        "n": 234,
        "mean": 7.288326929243596,
        "median": 7.241630952380959,
        "sd": 9.391934492528899,
        "ci": [
          6.071831959244459,
          8.501185725578432
        ],
        "positive": 187,
        "zero": 0,
        "negative": 47
      }
    },
    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population. Right of zero favors the skeptical side. These are area scores before weighting, not additive contributions."
  },
  {
    "id": "p1-checks",
    "title": "The difference is smaller in the additions",
    "unit": "Non-theist minus religious-side score (points)",
    "scope": "Counts shown per row; overlapping selections",
    "source": {
      "original169": {
        "n": 169,
        "mean": 6.349112426035503,
        "median": 6.0,
        "sd": 6.184852062972613,
        "ci": [
          5.408284023668639,
          7.284023668639053
        ],
        "positive": 145,
        "zero": 5,
        "negative": 19
      },
      "added_since_baseline": {
        "n": 65,
        "mean": 4.153846153846154,
        "median": 4.0,
        "sd": 5.796633638454439,
        "ci": [
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          5.538461538461538
        ],
        "positive": 48,
        "zero": 3,
        "negative": 14
      },
      "september_snapshot": {
        "n": 187,
        "mean": 6.342245989304812,
        "median": 6.0,
        "sd": 6.1487371973405756,
        "ci": [
          5.459893048128342,
          7.224598930481283
        ],
        "positive": 160,
        "zero": 7,
        "negative": 20
      },
      "new_since_september": {
        "n": 47,
        "mean": 3.3404255319148937,
        "median": 3.0,
        "sd": 5.580543045667809,
        "ci": [
          1.7659574468085106,
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        ],
        "positive": 33,
        "zero": 1,
        "negative": 13
      },
      "without_new_origin_cases": {
        "n": 232,
        "mean": 5.741379310344827,
        "median": 6.0,
        "sd": 6.062617967298086,
        "ci": [
          4.969719827586207,
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        ],
        "positive": 192,
        "zero": 8,
        "negative": 32
      },
      "narrow": {
        "n": 186,
        "mean": 5.768817204301075,
        "median": 6.0,
        "sd": 6.3437814367896115,
        "ci": [
          4.844086021505376,
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        ],
        "positive": 153,
        "zero": 7,
        "negative": 26
      },
      "earlier": {
        "n": 146,
        "mean": 6.321917808219178,
        "median": 6.0,
        "sd": 6.26422236306212,
        "ci": [
          5.315068493150685,
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        "positive": 125,
        "zero": 4,
        "negative": 17
      },
      "later": {
        "n": 88,
        "mean": 4.7727272727272725,
        "median": 5.0,
        "sd": 5.854023614274974,
        "ci": [
          3.5568181818181817,
          5.988636363636363
        ],
        "positive": 68,
        "zero": 4,
        "negative": 16
      },
      "theist_pro": {
        "n": 202,
        "mean": 6.212871287128713,
        "median": 6.0,
        "sd": 6.1108526469636635,
        "ci": [
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        "positive": 169,
        "zero": 8,
        "negative": 25
      },
      "theist_con": {
        "n": 32,
        "mean": 2.75,
        "median": 3.0,
        "sd": 5.582229870094983,
        "ci": [
          0.75,
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        ],
        "positive": 24,
        "zero": 0,
        "negative": 8
      },
      "without_four_frequent_skeptics": {
        "n": 154,
        "mean": 4.64935064935065,
        "median": 5.0,
        "sd": 6.053716481279787,
        "ci": [
          3.6948051948051948,
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        "positive": 122,
        "zero": 4,
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      }
    },
    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population. Parentheses count comparisons. Rows overlap and are not independent replications."
  },
  {
    "id": "p1-decomposition",
    "title": "Where the overall score difference comes from",
    "unit": "Contribution to overall score gap (points)",
    "scope": "234 comparisons; official weights",
    "source": {
      "logicalCoherence": 1.5818032341886508,
      "evidenceWarrant": 1.5197307784807783,
      "responsiveness": 1.1820457280373948,
      "relevanceBurden": 0.31102737216487203,
      "precisionClarity": 0.43727056616223287,
      "calibrationCharity": 0.7288326929243595
    },
    "reading_key": "Bar lengths show additive weighted contributions, not independent causes. The small rounding residual and any burden adjustment reconcile their sum with the overall gap; both are reported in the text."
  },
  {
    "id": "p2-topics",
    "title": "Topic gaps: ordering remains uncertain",
    "unit": "Non-theist minus religious-side score (points)",
    "scope": "234 comparisons across eight research topics",
    "source": [
      {
        "topic": "Religion, culture & meaning",
        "n": 25,
        "mean": 7.28,
        "median": 8.0,
        "sd": 5.7046764442283076,
        "ci": [
          5.08,
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        ],
        "positive": 22,
        "zero": 1,
        "negative": 2,
        "contributions": {
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          "evidenceWarrant": 1.8942076248196247,
          "responsiveness": 1.549535642135642,
          "relevanceBurden": 0.41990018398268414,
          "precisionClarity": 0.5979111875901876,
          "calibrationCharity": 0.6832082366522364
        },
        "theist_pro": {
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          "median": 10.0,
          "sd": 4.967143507075575,
          "ci": [
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          ],
          "positive": 18,
          "zero": 1,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "earlier": {
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          "median": 8.0,
          "sd": 4.813671007809796,
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          ],
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        },
        "later": {
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        },
        "without_four": {
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          "positive": 12,
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        },
        "highest_resample_share": 0.3221
      },
      {
        "topic": "Evil, suffering & hiddenness",
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          "median": 8.5,
          "sd": 3.4351128074635335,
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            6.5625,
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          "positive": 16,
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        },
        "earlier": {
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        },
        "later": {
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          "positive": 15,
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        "highest_resample_share": 0.13945
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      {
        "topic": "Morality & moral foundations",
        "n": 24,
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        "earlier": {
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        "highest_resample_share": 0.19555
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      {
        "topic": "Mind, reason & logic",
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        "highest_resample_share": 0.1803
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      {
        "topic": "Scripture, revelation & doctrine",
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          "positive": 35,
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        "highest_resample_share": 0.0007
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      {
        "topic": "Resurrection & historical evidence",
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          "negative": 2
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        "without_four": {
          "n": 15,
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            -0.26666666666666666,
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        "highest_resample_share": 0.0
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    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population. Counts are in parentheses. These stable research groups are not the current browsing categories."
  },
  {
    "id": "p2-moves",
    "title": "Support gap by kind of assessed move",
    "unit": "Non-theist minus religious-side support (area points)",
    "scope": "Both sides must contain the stated move kind; equal debate weights",
    "source": [
      {
        "n": 234,
        "mean": 7.564542058493366,
        "median": 7.419230769230765,
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          6.584284786962956,
          8.558220402321092
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      {
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        "ci": [
          6.786676717103181,
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        "positive": 195,
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      {
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        "positive": 128,
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      {
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    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population. Each side’s qualifying moves are averaged before comparing sides. Rows overlap; these are not official weighted overall scores."
  },
  {
    "id": "p2-order",
    "title": "How often does each topic have the largest gap?",
    "unit": "Share of repeated calculations (%)",
    "scope": "20,000 separate within-topic resamples",
    "source": [
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        "topic": "Evil, suffering & hiddenness",
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        "topic": "Morality & moral foundations",
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          "positive": 12,
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        "topic": "Mind, reason & logic",
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          "positive": 35,
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        "highest_resample_share": 0.0007
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      {
        "topic": "Resurrection & historical evidence",
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    "reading_key": "Each bar counts calculations in which the topic has the highest gap. This is a stability exercise, not the probability that it is truly the hardest topic in the wider world."
  },
  {
    "id": "p3-direct-rates",
    "title": "Historical direct review: September 5, 2026",
    "unit": "Uses per 10,000 attributed words",
    "scope": "187 previously reviewed transcripts, not the expanded archive",
    "source": {
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      "borderline_protected": {
        "n": 187,
        "theist_count": 144,
        "non_theist_count": 66,
        "theist_words": 1433125,
        "non_theist_words": 1439245,
        "theist_pooled_rate": 1.004797208896642,
        "non_theist_pooled_rate": 0.458573766106535,
        "theist_equal_debate_rate": 1.0330724165300278,
        "non_theist_equal_debate_rate": 0.49717789168549015,
        "mean_gap": 0.5358945248445377,
        "median_gap": 0.0,
        "gap_ci": [
          0.2732993326621565,
          0.8038551795633063
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        "presence": {
          "theist_only": 63,
          "both": 20,
          "neither": 77,
          "non_theist_only": 27
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        "theist_higher": 77,
        "non_theist_higher": 33,
        "equal": 77
      }
    },
    "reading_key": "Rust is theist; teal is non-theist. Each debate receives equal weight after allowing for speech length. Both panels start at zero on the same scale. Protected slogans are a subset of unsupported slogans; do not add them. These dated counts have not been extended to new transcripts."
  },
  {
    "id": "p3-direct-uncertainty",
    "title": "The narrower historical finding is clearer",
    "unit": "Theist minus non-theist uses per 10,000 words",
    "scope": "187 historical transcript reviews",
    "source": {
      "unsupported": {
        "n": 187,
        "theist_count": 128,
        "non_theist_count": 82,
        "theist_words": 1433125,
        "non_theist_words": 1439245,
        "theist_pooled_rate": 0.8931530745747929,
        "non_theist_pooled_rate": 0.5697431639505435,
        "theist_equal_debate_rate": 0.9702025405418172,
        "non_theist_equal_debate_rate": 0.6494240869181966,
        "mean_gap": 0.32077845362362073,
        "median_gap": 0.0,
        "gap_ci": [
          -0.1349760512168371,
          0.7845708283939791
        ],
        "presence": {
          "neither": 98,
          "non_theist_only": 28,
          "theist_only": 40,
          "both": 21
        },
        "theist_higher": 53,
        "non_theist_higher": 36,
        "equal": 98
      },
      "protected_slogan": {
        "n": 187,
        "theist_count": 77,
        "non_theist_count": 19,
        "theist_words": 1433125,
        "non_theist_words": 1439245,
        "theist_pooled_rate": 0.5372873964238988,
        "non_theist_pooled_rate": 0.13201365993976008,
        "theist_equal_debate_rate": 0.5649114327418533,
        "non_theist_equal_debate_rate": 0.16280411107114803,
        "mean_gap": 0.4021073216707053,
        "median_gap": 0.0,
        "gap_ci": [
          0.11091182227597478,
          0.7376330778326645
        ],
        "presence": {
          "neither": 144,
          "theist_only": 32,
          "both": 2,
          "non_theist_only": 9
        },
        "theist_higher": 32,
        "non_theist_higher": 11,
        "equal": 144
      },
      "protected_any": {
        "n": 187,
        "theist_count": 241,
        "non_theist_count": 64,
        "theist_words": 1433125,
        "non_theist_words": 1439245,
        "theist_pooled_rate": 1.681639773222852,
        "non_theist_pooled_rate": 0.44467759137603396,
        "theist_equal_debate_rate": 1.6680166058833874,
        "non_theist_equal_debate_rate": 0.45223748567992517,
        "mean_gap": 1.2157791202034625,
        "median_gap": 0.0,
        "gap_ci": [
          0.7245525299384522,
          1.789641096637027
        ],
        "presence": {
          "theist_only": 70,
          "neither": 82,
          "both": 17,
          "non_theist_only": 18
        },
        "theist_higher": 79,
        "non_theist_higher": 26,
        "equal": 82
      },
      "borderline_unsupported": {
        "n": 187,
        "theist_count": 159,
        "non_theist_count": 87,
        "theist_words": 1433125,
        "non_theist_words": 1439245,
        "theist_pooled_rate": 1.1094635848233756,
        "non_theist_pooled_rate": 0.6044836007767962,
        "theist_equal_debate_rate": 1.1851501060069296,
        "non_theist_equal_debate_rate": 0.6542286429586732,
        "mean_gap": 0.5309214630482563,
        "median_gap": 0.0,
        "gap_ci": [
          0.2501538410338318,
          0.8180548288546587
        ],
        "presence": {
          "theist_only": 58,
          "neither": 65,
          "both": 31,
          "non_theist_only": 33
        },
        "theist_higher": 77,
        "non_theist_higher": 45,
        "equal": 65
      },
      "borderline_protected": {
        "n": 187,
        "theist_count": 144,
        "non_theist_count": 66,
        "theist_words": 1433125,
        "non_theist_words": 1439245,
        "theist_pooled_rate": 1.004797208896642,
        "non_theist_pooled_rate": 0.458573766106535,
        "theist_equal_debate_rate": 1.0330724165300278,
        "non_theist_equal_debate_rate": 0.49717789168549015,
        "mean_gap": 0.5358945248445377,
        "median_gap": 0.0,
        "gap_ci": [
          0.2732993326621565,
          0.8038551795633063
        ],
        "presence": {
          "theist_only": 63,
          "both": 20,
          "neither": 77,
          "non_theist_only": 27
        },
        "theist_higher": 77,
        "non_theist_higher": 33,
        "equal": 77
      }
    },
    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population. The unsupported-slogan range crosses zero; the protected-slogan range does not. Both use the September direct annotations, not new scorecard judgments."
  },
  {
    "id": "p3-proxy",
    "title": "Current scores: a separate warning pattern",
    "unit": "Religious minus skeptical flagged share (percentage points)",
    "scope": "Support <70, clarity <80 and care <80 together; not direct slogan detection",
    "source": {
      "earlier": {
        "paired_pp": {
          "n": 146,
          "mean": 24.245191642451914,
          "median": 23.61111111111111,
          "sd": 31.75738058069693,
          "ci": [
            19.105167996007037,
            29.40627841526814
          ],
          "positive": 108,
          "zero": 15,
          "negative": 23
        },
        "equal_debate_pct": {
          "theist": 36.83560161299887,
          "non": 12.590409970546956
        }
      },
      "later": {
        "paired_pp": {
          "n": 88,
          "mean": 14.212885885047116,
          "median": 11.754385964912279,
          "sd": 27.933164113216456,
          "ci": [
            8.499324365227691,
            20.100769953434405
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          "positive": 58,
          "zero": 7,
          "negative": 23
        },
        "equal_debate_pct": {
          "theist": 28.957960872433024,
          "non": 14.745074987385909
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      },
      "all": {
        "paired_pp": {
          "n": 234,
          "mean": 20.472358708043274,
          "median": 17.424242424242426,
          "sd": 30.703197920159855,
          "ci": [
            16.53415556637813,
            24.403639981711216
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          "positive": 166,
          "zero": 22,
          "negative": 46
        },
        "equal_debate_pct": {
          "theist": 33.87307005244419,
          "non": 13.400711344400923
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      }
    },
    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population. A flag requires all three score thresholds on the same move. A low score does not demonstrate a criticism-blocking slogan. Never combine these percentages with the transcript word rates."
  },
  {
    "id": "p4-estimates",
    "title": "Role estimates answer different questions",
    "unit": "CON minus PRO score (points)",
    "scope": "Debate draws for first two rows; speaker draws for last two",
    "source": {
      "raw": {
        "n": 291,
        "mean": 4.436426116838488,
        "median": 4.0,
        "sd": 6.697290724269369,
        "ci": [
          3.676975945017182,
          5.206185567010309
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        "positive": 211,
        "zero": 12,
        "negative": 68
      },
      "strata": {
        "theist_pro": {
          "n": 202,
          "mean": 6.212871287128713,
          "median": 6.0,
          "sd": 6.1108526469636635,
          "ci": [
            5.366336633663367,
            7.0594059405940595
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          "positive": 169,
          "zero": 8,
          "negative": 25
        },
        "theist_con": {
          "n": 32,
          "mean": -2.75,
          "median": -3.0,
          "sd": 5.582229870094983,
          "ci": [
            -4.59375,
            -0.75
          ],
          "positive": 8,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 24
        },
        "outside": {
          "n": 57,
          "mean": 2.175438596491228,
          "median": 2.0,
          "sd": 5.9073888569967545,
          "ci": [
            0.6842105263157895,
            3.736842105263158
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          "positive": 34,
          "zero": 4,
          "negative": 19
        },
        "earlier": {
          "n": 179,
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          "median": 5.0,
          "sd": 6.765047323861136,
          "ci": [
            3.9329608938547485,
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          "positive": 136,
          "zero": 7,
          "negative": 36
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        "later": {
          "n": 112,
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          "ci": [
            2.419642857142857,
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          "positive": 75,
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      },
      "cross_speakers": [
        {
          "speaker": "Alex O'Connor",
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          "pro": 82.66666666666667,
          "con": 85.8,
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        {
          "speaker": "Christopher Hitchens",
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          "pro": 81.4,
          "con": 81.5,
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        {
          "speaker": "Dinesh D'Souza",
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          "pro": 75.0,
          "con": 75.0,
          "gap": 0.0,
          "weight": 1.4285714285714286
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        {
          "speaker": "John Lennox",
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          "pro": 77.22222222222223,
          "con": 72.0,
          "gap": -5.2222222222222285,
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        {
          "speaker": "Peter Atkins",
          "n": 6,
          "pro_n": 2,
          "con_n": 4,
          "pro": 67.5,
          "con": 73.75,
          "gap": 6.25,
          "weight": 1.3333333333333333
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        {
          "speaker": "Matt Dillahunty",
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          "pro": 82.66666666666667,
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        {
          "speaker": "Michael Shermer",
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          "pro": 79.33333333333333,
          "con": 81.8,
          "gap": 2.4666666666666686,
          "weight": 1.875
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        {
          "speaker": "Sam Harris",
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          "pro": 80.33333333333333,
          "con": 81.6,
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        {
          "speaker": "Bart Ehrman",
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          "pro": 86.33333333333333,
          "con": 85.36363636363636,
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        {
          "speaker": "Michael Jones",
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          "pro": 74.54545454545455,
          "con": 81.0,
          "gap": 6.454545454545453,
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        {
          "speaker": "Richard Dawkins",
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          "pro": 76.0,
          "con": 83.125,
          "gap": 7.125,
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        {
          "speaker": "Rabbi David Wolpe",
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          "pro_n": 1,
          "con_n": 1,
          "pro": 68.0,
          "con": 76.0,
          "gap": 8.0,
          "weight": 0.5
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        {
          "speaker": "Frank Turek",
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          "pro": 74.71428571428571,
          "con": 70.0,
          "gap": -4.714285714285708,
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        {
          "speaker": "Sean Carroll",
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          "pro": 84.0,
          "con": 87.0,
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        {
          "speaker": "Philip Goff",
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          "pro": 81.33333333333333,
          "con": 82.0,
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        {
          "speaker": "Lance Bush",
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          "con_n": 4,
          "pro": 90.0,
          "con": 83.5,
          "gap": -6.5,
          "weight": 0.8
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        {
          "speaker": "Michael Huemer",
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          "pro": 82.4,
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        {
          "speaker": "Joseph Schmid",
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          "pro": 88.0,
          "con": 87.2,
          "gap": -0.7999999999999972,
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        {
          "speaker": "Glen Scrivener",
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          "pro": 77.33333333333333,
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          "weight": 1.5
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        {
          "speaker": "Joe Folley",
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          "pro": 85.0,
          "con": 86.4,
          "gap": 1.4000000000000057,
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        {
          "speaker": "Alex Malpass",
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          "pro": 87.0,
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        {
          "speaker": "Matt Slick",
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          "con_n": 1,
          "pro": 70.33333333333333,
          "con": 74.0,
          "gap": 3.6666666666666714,
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        {
          "speaker": "Stephen Woodford",
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          "pro": 82.33333333333333,
          "con": 79.66666666666667,
          "gap": -2.666666666666657,
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        {
          "speaker": "Max Baker-Hytch",
          "n": 3,
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          "con_n": 2,
          "pro": 84.0,
          "con": 82.5,
          "gap": -1.5,
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        {
          "speaker": "Michael Ruse",
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          "pro": 82.0,
          "con": 83.5,
          "gap": 1.5,
          "weight": 0.6666666666666666
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        {
          "speaker": "Justin Schieber",
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          "pro": 85.0,
          "con": 85.0,
          "gap": 0.0,
          "weight": 0.75
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        {
          "speaker": "Michael Licona",
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          "con_n": 1,
          "pro": 80.5,
          "con": 84.0,
          "gap": 3.5,
          "weight": 0.8571428571428571
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        {
          "speaker": "Daniel Dennett",
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          "pro": 81.5,
          "con": 85.0,
          "gap": 3.5,
          "weight": 1.7142857142857142
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        {
          "speaker": "Aron Ra",
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          "pro": 75.0,
          "con": 76.8,
          "gap": 1.7999999999999972,
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        {
          "speaker": "Alister McGrath",
          "n": 4,
          "pro_n": 3,
          "con_n": 1,
          "pro": 74.66666666666667,
          "con": 72.0,
          "gap": -2.6666666666666714,
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        {
          "speaker": "James White",
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          "con_n": 2,
          "pro": 79.33333333333333,
          "con": 83.0,
          "gap": 3.6666666666666714,
          "weight": 1.2
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        {
          "speaker": "Bernardo Kastrup",
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          "con_n": 2,
          "pro": 80.5,
          "con": 81.0,
          "gap": 0.5,
          "weight": 1.3333333333333333
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        {
          "speaker": "John Dominic Crossan",
          "n": 2,
          "pro_n": 1,
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          "pro": 82.0,
          "con": 77.0,
          "gap": -5.0,
          "weight": 0.5
        },
        {
          "speaker": "Craig Evans",
          "n": 2,
          "pro_n": 1,
          "con_n": 1,
          "pro": 79.0,
          "con": 83.0,
          "gap": 4.0,
          "weight": 0.5
        },
        {
          "speaker": "Blake Giunta",
          "n": 2,
          "pro_n": 1,
          "con_n": 1,
          "pro": 77.0,
          "con": 82.0,
          "gap": 5.0,
          "weight": 0.5
        },
        {
          "speaker": "Randal Rauser",
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          "pro_n": 3,
          "con_n": 4,
          "pro": 81.33333333333333,
          "con": 82.5,
          "gap": 1.1666666666666714,
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        {
          "speaker": "Paulogia",
          "n": 5,
          "pro_n": 1,
          "con_n": 4,
          "pro": 86.0,
          "con": 84.25,
          "gap": -1.75,
          "weight": 0.8
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      ],
      "same_speaker_equal": {
        "n": 37,
        "mean": 1.0920101359756536,
        "median": 1.2666666666666657,
        "sd": 3.4732446015943275,
        "ci": [
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        "positive": 24,
        "zero": 2,
        "negative": 11
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      "same_speaker_weighted": {
        "estimate": 1.3296659713542724,
        "ci": [
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      "orientation_balanced": {
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        "ci": [
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    },
    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population. Right of zero favors CON. The weighted same-speaker range is now above zero, but no comparison randomly assigns roles, opponents or topics."
  },
  {
    "id": "p4-strata",
    "title": "The positions matter to the role contrast",
    "unit": "CON minus PRO score (points)",
    "scope": "Non-overlapping groups of comparable debates",
    "source": {
      "theist_pro": {
        "n": 202,
        "mean": 6.212871287128713,
        "median": 6.0,
        "sd": 6.1108526469636635,
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        "positive": 169,
        "zero": 8,
        "negative": 25
      },
      "theist_con": {
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        "mean": -2.75,
        "median": -3.0,
        "sd": 5.582229870094983,
        "ci": [
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        "positive": 8,
        "zero": 0,
        "negative": 24
      },
      "outside": {
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        "ci": [
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        "positive": 34,
        "zero": 4,
        "negative": 19
      },
      "earlier": {
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        "mean": 4.93854748603352,
        "median": 5.0,
        "sd": 6.765047323861136,
        "ci": [
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        "positive": 136,
        "zero": 7,
        "negative": 36
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      "later": {
        "n": 112,
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        "sd": 6.5374810363899565,
        "ci": [
          2.419642857142857,
          4.830357142857143
        ],
        "positive": 75,
        "zero": 5,
        "negative": 32
      }
    },
    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population."
  },
  {
    "id": "p5-cohorts",
    "title": "Lower-scoring sides with no named-fallacy tag",
    "unit": "Share of decisive assessments (%)",
    "scope": "296 decisive assessments; 12 ties excluded",
    "source": {
      "decisive": 296,
      "ties": 12,
      "losses_without_fallacy": 161,
      "neither_fallacy": 146,
      "losses_without_any_tag": 149,
      "winner_with_fallacy": 75,
      "cohorts": {
        "earlier": {
          "n": 172,
          "no_fallacy": 139,
          "neither": 135
        },
        "later": {
          "n": 107,
          "no_fallacy": 19,
          "neither": 10
        },
        "unlocked": {
          "n": 17,
          "no_fallacy": 3,
          "neither": 1
        }
      },
      "untagged_locked": {
        "n": 158,
        "behind_distribution": {
          "4": 31,
          "6": 65,
          "5": 53,
          "3": 8,
          "2": 1
        },
        "dimension_gaps": {
          "logicalCoherence": {
            "n": 158,
            "mean": 6.757236380532267,
            "median": 6.412499999999994,
            "sd": 5.087258479857658,
            "ci": [
              5.973973846968781,
              7.569355116775805
            ],
            "positive": 150,
            "zero": 0,
            "negative": 8
          },
          "evidenceWarrant": {
            "n": 158,
            "mean": 7.641098140080735,
            "median": 6.957500000000003,
            "sd": 5.666958892337015,
            "ci": [
              6.769445865355636,
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            "positive": 148,
            "zero": 0,
            "negative": 10
          },
          "responsiveness": {
            "n": 158,
            "mean": 6.483758934279505,
            "median": 6.123999999999995,
            "sd": 6.862219731230562,
            "ci": [
              5.428268327659508,
              7.583493812731749
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            "positive": 141,
            "zero": 0,
            "negative": 17
          },
          "relevanceBurden": {
            "n": 158,
            "mean": 1.058769179133103,
            "median": 1.1400000000000006,
            "sd": 2.9507439381134697,
            "ci": [
              0.5960400029339499,
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            "positive": 101,
            "zero": 0,
            "negative": 57
          },
          "precisionClarity": {
            "n": 158,
            "mean": 5.574563393884596,
            "median": 4.651818181818179,
            "sd": 5.732859924395637,
            "ci": [
              4.6927048311437165,
              6.482143971416244
            ],
            "positive": 131,
            "zero": 2,
            "negative": 25
          },
          "calibrationCharity": {
            "n": 158,
            "mean": 7.93353029161415,
            "median": 7.993499999999997,
            "sd": 7.358466828739859,
            "ci": [
              6.798397802276835,
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            "positive": 134,
            "zero": 0,
            "negative": 24
          }
        },
        "five_or_six": 118
      },
      "tag_inventory": {
        "Argument from ignorance": 85,
        "Appeal to authority": 76,
        "Equivocation": 121,
        "Begging the question": 73,
        "Special pleading": 38,
        "Red herring": 157
      },
      "tagged_moves": 536,
      "large_untagged_losses": [
        {
          "number": 127,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 19,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 22.389999999999986,
            "evidenceWarrant": 21.480000000000018,
            "responsiveness": 22.80000000000001,
            "relevanceBurden": -0.4200000000000017,
            "precisionClarity": 16.0,
            "calibrationCharity": 27.14999999999999
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 5
        },
        {
          "number": 141,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 18,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 23.433999999999997,
            "evidenceWarrant": 27.320666666666668,
            "responsiveness": 11.336999999999975,
            "relevanceBurden": 3.951333333333338,
            "precisionClarity": 21.548333333333318,
            "calibrationCharity": 21.165333333333322
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 68,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 17,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 15.350000000000009,
            "evidenceWarrant": 17.19999999999999,
            "responsiveness": 30.42500000000001,
            "relevanceBurden": 3.700000000000003,
            "precisionClarity": 11.5,
            "calibrationCharity": 17.89999999999999
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 72,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 17,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 18.564000000000007,
            "evidenceWarrant": 18.13599999999998,
            "responsiveness": 21.906000000000006,
            "relevanceBurden": -0.02199999999999136,
            "precisionClarity": 16.28,
            "calibrationCharity": 21.698000000000008
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 5
        },
        {
          "number": 157,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 17,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 21.320999999999998,
            "evidenceWarrant": 22.799,
            "responsiveness": 14.807999999999993,
            "relevanceBurden": 2.097999999999999,
            "precisionClarity": 17.72,
            "calibrationCharity": 22.587999999999994
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 9,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 16,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 16.275000000000006,
            "evidenceWarrant": 15.525000000000006,
            "responsiveness": 19.59999999999998,
            "relevanceBurden": 5.050000000000011,
            "precisionClarity": 17.625,
            "calibrationCharity": 20.575000000000003
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 46,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 16,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 15.649999999999977,
            "evidenceWarrant": 22.260000000000005,
            "responsiveness": 15.325000000000003,
            "relevanceBurden": 1.2000000000000028,
            "precisionClarity": 20.599999999999994,
            "calibrationCharity": 22.684999999999988
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 67,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 16,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 18.35499999999999,
            "evidenceWarrant": 18.319999999999993,
            "responsiveness": 22.119,
            "relevanceBurden": 2.487000000000009,
            "precisionClarity": 11.120000000000005,
            "calibrationCharity": 17.834000000000003
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 63,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 15,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 15.924999999999997,
            "evidenceWarrant": 18.235,
            "responsiveness": 17.829999999999984,
            "relevanceBurden": 6.359999999999999,
            "precisionClarity": 13.599999999999994,
            "calibrationCharity": 19.379999999999995
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 85,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 15,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 17.397999999999996,
            "evidenceWarrant": 17.988,
            "responsiveness": 13.988,
            "relevanceBurden": -5.075999999999993,
            "precisionClarity": 20.47,
            "calibrationCharity": 31.428000000000004
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 5
        },
        {
          "number": 82,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 14,
          "lower": "con",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 15.727999999999994,
            "evidenceWarrant": 14.062000000000012,
            "responsiveness": 13.141999999999996,
            "relevanceBurden": 4.518000000000001,
            "precisionClarity": 18.200000000000017,
            "calibrationCharity": 15.305999999999997
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 49,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 13,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 14.299000000000007,
            "evidenceWarrant": 16.533999999999992,
            "responsiveness": 16.35666666666667,
            "relevanceBurden": 3.2423333333333204,
            "precisionClarity": 6.566666666666663,
            "calibrationCharity": 18.846333333333334
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          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 123,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 13,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 9.719999999999985,
            "evidenceWarrant": 11.39,
            "responsiveness": 29.995000000000005,
            "relevanceBurden": -0.12000000000000455,
            "precisionClarity": 14.0,
            "calibrationCharity": 14.534999999999997
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 5
        },
        {
          "number": 83,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 12,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 15.975999999999999,
            "evidenceWarrant": 12.981999999999992,
            "responsiveness": 14.626000000000005,
            "relevanceBurden": 1.3780000000000001,
            "precisionClarity": 13.099999999999994,
            "calibrationCharity": 14.24799999999999
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        },
        {
          "number": 86,
          "cohort": "earlier",
          "margin": 12,
          "lower": "pro",
          "lower_no_fallacy": true,
          "neither_fallacy": true,
          "lower_no_tag": true,
          "higher_has_fallacy": false,
          "dimension_gaps": {
            "logicalCoherence": 16.11,
            "evidenceWarrant": 16.955000000000005,
            "responsiveness": 8.110000000000014,
            "relevanceBurden": 1.875,
            "precisionClarity": 11.0,
            "calibrationCharity": 12.765
          },
          "dimensions_behind": 6
        }
      ]
    },
    "reading_key": "Fractions count lower-scoring sides without a fallacy label over all decisive results in each group. The dark total includes the other groups. No tag does not mean no error. Counts are assessments, including the disclosed shared-video pair."
  },
  {
    "id": "p5-dimensions",
    "title": "Untagged losses can be weaker across many areas",
    "unit": "Number of lower-scoring sides",
    "scope": "158 comparable untagged losses",
    "source": {
      "n": 158,
      "behind_distribution": {
        "4": 31,
        "6": 65,
        "5": 53,
        "3": 8,
        "2": 1
      },
      "dimension_gaps": {
        "logicalCoherence": {
          "n": 158,
          "mean": 6.757236380532267,
          "median": 6.412499999999994,
          "sd": 5.087258479857658,
          "ci": [
            5.973973846968781,
            7.569355116775805
          ],
          "positive": 150,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 8
        },
        "evidenceWarrant": {
          "n": 158,
          "mean": 7.641098140080735,
          "median": 6.957500000000003,
          "sd": 5.666958892337015,
          "ci": [
            6.769445865355636,
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          ],
          "positive": 148,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 10
        },
        "responsiveness": {
          "n": 158,
          "mean": 6.483758934279505,
          "median": 6.123999999999995,
          "sd": 6.862219731230562,
          "ci": [
            5.428268327659508,
            7.583493812731749
          ],
          "positive": 141,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 17
        },
        "relevanceBurden": {
          "n": 158,
          "mean": 1.058769179133103,
          "median": 1.1400000000000006,
          "sd": 2.9507439381134697,
          "ci": [
            0.5960400029339499,
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          "positive": 101,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 57
        },
        "precisionClarity": {
          "n": 158,
          "mean": 5.574563393884596,
          "median": 4.651818181818179,
          "sd": 5.732859924395637,
          "ci": [
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          ],
          "positive": 131,
          "zero": 2,
          "negative": 25
        },
        "calibrationCharity": {
          "n": 158,
          "mean": 7.93353029161415,
          "median": 7.993499999999997,
          "sd": 7.358466828739859,
          "ci": [
            6.798397802276835,
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          ],
          "positive": 134,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 24
        }
      },
      "five_or_six": 118
    },
    "reading_key": "Each bar counts losses with no named-fallacy label that trail in exactly the stated number of weighted scoring areas. Bars add to the eligible total; these are not independent deficiencies."
  },
  {
    "id": "p5-labels",
    "title": "What the accepted labels actually record",
    "unit": "Public label instances",
    "scope": "550 labels on 536 moves",
    "source": {
      "Argument from ignorance": 85,
      "Appeal to authority": 76,
      "Equivocation": 121,
      "Begging the question": 73,
      "Special pleading": 38,
      "Red herring": 157
    },
    "reading_key": "A move may carry several labels, so label instances exceed tagged moves. The six names are the accepted inventory in this snapshot, not an exhaustive catalogue of reasoning errors."
  },
  {
    "id": "p6-bridge",
    "title": "Returning speakers across assessment processes",
    "unit": "Average score points",
    "scope": "One dot per person appearing in both groups",
    "source": [
      {
        "speaker": "William Lane Craig",
        "earlier_n": 21,
        "later_n": 9,
        "earlier": 79.9047619047619,
        "later": 76.33333333333333,
        "gap": -3.5714285714285694
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Alex O'Connor",
        "earlier_n": 21,
        "later_n": 7,
        "earlier": 85.95238095238095,
        "later": 84.0,
        "gap": -1.952380952380949
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Christopher Hitchens",
        "earlier_n": 11,
        "later_n": 4,
        "earlier": 81.72727272727273,
        "later": 80.75,
        "gap": -0.9772727272727337
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Dinesh D'Souza",
        "earlier_n": 5,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 76.4,
        "later": 71.5,
        "gap": -4.900000000000006
      },
      {
        "speaker": "John Lennox",
        "earlier_n": 7,
        "later_n": 3,
        "earlier": 78.0,
        "later": 73.66666666666667,
        "gap": -4.333333333333329
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Peter Atkins",
        "earlier_n": 4,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 73.0,
        "later": 69.0,
        "gap": -4.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Matt Dillahunty",
        "earlier_n": 25,
        "later_n": 7,
        "earlier": 86.36,
        "later": 83.0,
        "gap": -3.3599999999999994
      },
      {
        "speaker": "David Wood",
        "earlier_n": 4,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 79.0,
        "later": 82.0,
        "gap": 3.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Michael Shermer",
        "earlier_n": 4,
        "later_n": 4,
        "earlier": 82.0,
        "later": 79.75,
        "gap": -2.25
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Jordan Peterson",
        "earlier_n": 3,
        "later_n": 3,
        "earlier": 75.0,
        "later": 74.66666666666667,
        "gap": -0.3333333333333286
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Sam Harris",
        "earlier_n": 5,
        "later_n": 3,
        "earlier": 80.6,
        "later": 82.0,
        "gap": 1.4000000000000057
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Bart Ehrman",
        "earlier_n": 10,
        "later_n": 4,
        "earlier": 86.1,
        "later": 84.25,
        "gap": -1.8499999999999943
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Tom Jump",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 4,
        "earlier": 79.0,
        "later": 77.0,
        "gap": -2.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Michael Jones",
        "earlier_n": 9,
        "later_n": 5,
        "earlier": 74.77777777777777,
        "later": 78.0,
        "gap": 3.2222222222222285
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Richard Carrier",
        "earlier_n": 5,
        "later_n": 3,
        "earlier": 80.6,
        "later": 80.33333333333333,
        "gap": -0.2666666666666657
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Ayaan Hirsi Ali",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 74.0,
        "later": 71.0,
        "gap": -3.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Richard Dawkins",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 7,
        "earlier": 83.0,
        "later": 82.14285714285714,
        "gap": -0.8571428571428612
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Francis Collins",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 79.0,
        "later": 76.0,
        "gap": -3.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Rabbi David Wolpe",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 76.0,
        "later": 68.0,
        "gap": -8.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Frank Turek",
        "earlier_n": 7,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 74.14285714285714,
        "later": 74.0,
        "gap": -0.1428571428571388
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Philip Goff",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 3,
        "earlier": 82.5,
        "later": 81.0,
        "gap": -1.5
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Sean McDowell",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 86.0,
        "later": 86.0,
        "gap": 0.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Lance Bush",
        "earlier_n": 3,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 85.66666666666667,
        "later": 83.5,
        "gap": -2.1666666666666714
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Michael Huemer",
        "earlier_n": 5,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 83.0,
        "later": 79.5,
        "gap": -3.5
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Christopher Tomaszewski",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 86.0,
        "later": 82.0,
        "gap": -4.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Joseph Schmid",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 4,
        "earlier": 88.5,
        "later": 86.75,
        "gap": -1.75
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Stephen Meyer",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 79.0,
        "later": 80.0,
        "gap": 1.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Glen Scrivener",
        "earlier_n": 4,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 78.0,
        "later": 79.0,
        "gap": 1.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Joe Folley",
        "earlier_n": 4,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 86.5,
        "later": 85.5,
        "gap": -1.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Trent Horn",
        "earlier_n": 3,
        "later_n": 6,
        "earlier": 79.0,
        "later": 77.0,
        "gap": -2.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Stephen Law",
        "earlier_n": 3,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 83.33333333333333,
        "later": 83.5,
        "gap": 0.1666666666666714
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Alex Malpass",
        "earlier_n": 6,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 87.16666666666667,
        "later": 87.0,
        "gap": -0.1666666666666714
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Matt Slick",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 72.0,
        "later": 70.5,
        "gap": -1.5
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Jonathan Pageau",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 76.0,
        "later": 74.0,
        "gap": -2.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Kyle Butt",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 71.0,
        "later": 75.0,
        "gap": 4.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Gregory Pine",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 76.5,
        "later": 75.0,
        "gap": -1.5
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Ben Watkins",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 86.0,
        "later": 78.0,
        "gap": -8.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Miles Donahue",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 80.0,
        "later": 80.0,
        "gap": 0.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Mike Winger",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 80.0,
        "later": 82.0,
        "gap": 2.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "James Anderson",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 86.0,
        "later": 79.0,
        "gap": -7.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Josh Rasmussen",
        "earlier_n": 4,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 81.5,
        "later": 77.0,
        "gap": -4.5
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Scott Clifton",
        "earlier_n": 3,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 88.0,
        "later": 84.0,
        "gap": -4.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Graham Oppy",
        "earlier_n": 10,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 84.8,
        "later": 80.5,
        "gap": -4.299999999999997
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Richard Swinburne",
        "earlier_n": 3,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 78.66666666666667,
        "later": 77.0,
        "gap": -1.6666666666666714
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Andrew Loke",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 74.0,
        "later": 70.0,
        "gap": -4.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Zac Sechler",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 79.0,
        "later": 72.0,
        "gap": -7.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Stephen Woodford",
        "earlier_n": 5,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 81.6,
        "later": 78.0,
        "gap": -3.5999999999999943
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Max Baker-Hytch",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 84.0,
        "later": 82.5,
        "gap": -1.5
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Susan Blackmore",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 85.5,
        "later": 85.0,
        "gap": -0.5
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Keith Ward",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 78.0,
        "later": 70.0,
        "gap": -8.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Jonathan McLatchie",
        "earlier_n": 4,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 78.75,
        "later": 81.0,
        "gap": 2.25
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Paul Copan",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 78.0,
        "later": 82.0,
        "gap": 4.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Justin Schieber",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 86.0,
        "later": 84.0,
        "gap": -2.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Eric Hernandez",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 3,
        "earlier": 74.0,
        "later": 71.33333333333333,
        "gap": -2.6666666666666714
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Michael Licona",
        "earlier_n": 5,
        "later_n": 2,
        "earlier": 81.4,
        "later": 80.0,
        "gap": -1.4000000000000057
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Robert Price",
        "earlier_n": 3,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 80.33333333333333,
        "later": 78.0,
        "gap": -2.3333333333333286
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Ross Douthat",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 82.0,
        "later": 69.0,
        "gap": -13.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Matthew Adelstein",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 81.0,
        "later": 79.0,
        "gap": -2.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Tyler Vela",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 76.0,
        "later": 83.0,
        "gap": 7.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Daniel Dennett",
        "earlier_n": 6,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 83.16666666666667,
        "later": 82.0,
        "gap": -1.1666666666666714
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Stuart Knechtle",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 71.0,
        "later": 68.0,
        "gap": -3.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Aron Ra",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 4,
        "earlier": 78.5,
        "later": 75.5,
        "gap": -3.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Erik Wielenberg",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 84.0,
        "later": 82.0,
        "gap": -2.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Peter Singer",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 86.0,
        "later": 81.0,
        "gap": -5.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Alister McGrath",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 3,
        "earlier": 80.0,
        "later": 72.0,
        "gap": -8.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Shabir Ally",
        "earlier_n": 2,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 82.0,
        "later": 77.0,
        "gap": -5.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Antony Flew",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 86.0,
        "later": 77.0,
        "gap": -9.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "James White",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 4,
        "earlier": 79.0,
        "later": 81.25,
        "gap": 2.25
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Robert Sapolsky",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 80.0,
        "later": 84.0,
        "gap": 4.0
      },
      {
        "speaker": "Bernardo Kastrup",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 5,
        "earlier": 83.0,
        "later": 80.2,
        "gap": -2.799999999999997
      },
      {
        "speaker": "John Dominic Crossan",
        "earlier_n": 1,
        "later_n": 1,
        "earlier": 82.0,
        "later": 77.0,
        "gap": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "reading_key": "The horizontal coordinate is the earlier average and the vertical coordinate the later average. Below the diagonal means lower later. Both axes enlarge the observed score range. These are different performances, not the same debate judged twice."
  },
  {
    "id": "p6-levels",
    "title": "Average debate score by assessment process",
    "unit": "Average of the two sides (score points)",
    "scope": "One equally weighted midpoint per comparable debate",
    "source": {
      "earlier": {
        "debates": 179,
        "moves": 3423,
        "midpoints": {
          "n": 179,
          "mean": 81.32402234636872,
          "median": 81.5,
          "sd": 2.7480398570030986,
          "ci": [
            80.92458100558659,
            81.72625698324022
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          "positive": 179,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "absolute_margin": {
          "n": 179,
          "mean": 6.759776536312849,
          "median": 6.0,
          "sd": 4.933644179873906,
          "ci": [
            6.044692737430168,
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          "positive": 172,
          "zero": 7,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "dimensions": {
          "logicalCoherence": 80.18945670391061,
          "evidenceWarrant": 71.70173044692737,
          "responsiveness": 87.99772113594041,
          "relevanceBurden": 85.15965968342644,
          "precisionClarity": 85.31622905027933,
          "calibrationCharity": 78.51006005586592
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        "corr": [
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            1.0,
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        "first_component_share": 0.5693779355698914,
        "tag_pct": 2.5416301489921125,
        "fallacy_pct": 1.8989190768331874,
        "tag_pct_equal_debate": 2.4820703863322215
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      "later": {
        "debates": 112,
        "moves": 3609,
        "midpoints": {
          "n": 112,
          "mean": 78.97767857142857,
          "median": 79.0,
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          "ci": [
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          "positive": 112,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "absolute_margin": {
          "n": 112,
          "mean": 5.883928571428571,
          "median": 5.0,
          "sd": 4.596797819466307,
          "ci": [
            5.044642857142857,
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          "positive": 107,
          "zero": 5,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "dimensions": {
          "logicalCoherence": 79.05564172657698,
          "evidenceWarrant": 69.3676976219465,
          "responsiveness": 84.1982731524428,
          "relevanceBurden": 82.77799241780045,
          "precisionClarity": 82.1979093566404,
          "calibrationCharity": 77.70823256802721
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        "corr": [
          [
            1.0,
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            0.8305932372058853,
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            0.708030383042768,
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            0.6694683626214866,
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        "first_component_share": 0.7261261536307902,
        "tag_pct": 15.211970074812967,
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        "tag_pct_equal_debate": 15.533447497660976
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    },
    "reading_key": "Dots show averages; lines contain the middle 95% from 20,000 repeated draws of the stated records. Zero means no average difference. These ranges describe sensitivity to the saved observations, not all sources of judging error or a representative population."
  },
  {
    "id": "p6-tags",
    "title": "Any fallacy or bias tag, by assessment process",
    "unit": "Tagged moves (%)",
    "scope": "Pooled move counts, not equal debate rates",
    "source": {
      "earlier": {
        "debates": 179,
        "moves": 3423,
        "midpoints": {
          "n": 179,
          "mean": 81.32402234636872,
          "median": 81.5,
          "sd": 2.7480398570030986,
          "ci": [
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          "positive": 179,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "absolute_margin": {
          "n": 179,
          "mean": 6.759776536312849,
          "median": 6.0,
          "sd": 4.933644179873906,
          "ci": [
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          "positive": 172,
          "zero": 7,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "dimensions": {
          "logicalCoherence": 80.18945670391061,
          "evidenceWarrant": 71.70173044692737,
          "responsiveness": 87.99772113594041,
          "relevanceBurden": 85.15965968342644,
          "precisionClarity": 85.31622905027933,
          "calibrationCharity": 78.51006005586592
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        "corr": [
          [
            1.0,
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            0.8748688453817288,
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          [
            0.36533665995606734,
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            -0.007571543460233203,
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            0.6706500733764481,
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            0.8492618352415671,
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        "first_component_share": 0.5693779355698914,
        "tag_pct": 2.5416301489921125,
        "fallacy_pct": 1.8989190768331874,
        "tag_pct_equal_debate": 2.4820703863322215
      },
      "later": {
        "debates": 112,
        "moves": 3609,
        "midpoints": {
          "n": 112,
          "mean": 78.97767857142857,
          "median": 79.0,
          "sd": 3.3080494190407674,
          "ci": [
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          ],
          "positive": 112,
          "zero": 0,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "absolute_margin": {
          "n": 112,
          "mean": 5.883928571428571,
          "median": 5.0,
          "sd": 4.596797819466307,
          "ci": [
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          ],
          "positive": 107,
          "zero": 5,
          "negative": 0
        },
        "dimensions": {
          "logicalCoherence": 79.05564172657698,
          "evidenceWarrant": 69.3676976219465,
          "responsiveness": 84.1982731524428,
          "relevanceBurden": 82.77799241780045,
          "precisionClarity": 82.1979093566404,
          "calibrationCharity": 77.70823256802721
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        "corr": [
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            1.0,
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        ],
        "first_component_share": 0.7261261536307902,
        "tag_pct": 15.211970074812967,
        "fallacy_pct": 11.74840676087559,
        "tag_pct_equal_debate": 15.533447497660976
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    },
    "reading_key": "A move counts once if it has any fallacy or bias tag. Bar length is the percentage of all moves in that process. Different annotation rates can reflect procedure as well as different arguments."
  },
  {
    "id": "p6-score-use",
    "title": "The same scale can use different score vocabularies",
    "unit": "Share of moves at each exact mark",
    "scope": "All comparable moves, grouped by process",
    "source": {
      "precisionClarity": {
        "earlier": {
          "60": 66,
          "75": 1342,
          "85": 402,
          "95": 1613
        },
        "later": {
          "48": 2,
          "56": 1,
          "57": 1,
          "58": 4,
          "59": 1,
          "60": 1,
          "61": 4,
          "62": 10,
          "63": 8,
          "64": 7,
          "65": 14,
          "66": 19,
          "67": 26,
          "68": 21,
          "69": 34,
          "70": 36,
          "71": 49,
          "72": 57,
          "73": 48,
          "74": 72,
          "75": 71,
          "76": 102,
          "77": 122,
          "78": 130,
          "79": 196,
          "80": 188,
          "81": 189,
          "82": 208,
          "83": 265,
          "84": 270,
          "85": 236,
          "86": 217,
          "87": 263,
          "88": 216,
          "89": 173,
          "90": 119,
          "91": 112,
          "92": 63,
          "93": 31,
          "94": 17,
          "95": 5,
          "96": 1
        }
      },
      "relevanceBurden": {
        "earlier": {
          "21": 1,
          "22": 2,
          "23": 2,
          "25": 1,
          "67": 6,
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          "69": 523,
          "70": 6,
          "71": 10,
          "72": 2,
          "73": 1,
          "84": 1,
          "85": 4,
          "86": 188,
          "87": 2179,
          "88": 39,
          "89": 9,
          "99": 59,
          "100": 243
        },
        "later": {
          "46": 1,
          "49": 1,
          "50": 1,
          "52": 1,
          "54": 2,
          "55": 3,
          "57": 5,
          "58": 4,
          "59": 5,
          "60": 9,
          "61": 6,
          "62": 8,
          "63": 8,
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          "65": 20,
          "66": 19,
          "67": 26,
          "68": 41,
          "69": 33,
          "70": 62,
          "71": 50,
          "72": 81,
          "73": 70,
          "74": 75,
          "75": 81,
          "76": 104,
          "77": 105,
          "78": 144,
          "79": 140,
          "80": 158,
          "81": 160,
          "82": 190,
          "83": 209,
          "84": 232,
          "85": 235,
          "86": 216,
          "87": 198,
          "88": 226,
          "89": 176,
          "90": 165,
          "91": 126,
          "92": 92,
          "93": 60,
          "94": 30,
          "95": 17,
          "96": 1,
          "97": 2,
          "98": 3
        }
      }
    },
    "reading_key": "Teal is earlier; rust is later. Each bar shows the share of moves assigned that exact area score. Both panels use identical axes. More distinct marks mean finer numerical resolution, not necessarily better judgments."
  },
  {
    "id": "p7-ranges",
    "title": "Leading averages have overlapping rank ranges",
    "unit": "Rank positions",
    "scope": "Highest 15 means shown; all 57 eligible people included in calculation",
    "source": [
      {
        "speaker": "Joseph Schmid",
        "rank": 1,
        "n": 6,
        "mean": 87.33333333333333,
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    ],
    "reading_key": "Each dot is a person. Height is the upper rank endpoint minus the lower: 2–9 has width 7. Lower means a narrower calculated range, not a lower performance score. Rank density and score variation matter as well as sample size."
  }
]