[
  {
    "id": "p8-targets",
    "title": "Most recorded links lead to another reply",
    "scope": "112 later-process comparable debates; links, not unique replies.",
    "reading": "Bar length counts recorded links. A reply can have more than one target. Teal means its target is another reply; gold means a constructive argument. Both bars start at zero. These categories describe the stored links, not whether a reply succeeds.",
    "inputs": {
      "reply": 1733,
      "constructive": 1245,
      "denominator": 2978
    },
    "width": 1462,
    "height": 799
  },
  {
    "id": "p9-bridges",
    "title": "Keep the next claim visible",
    "scope": "An explanatory framework illustrated by eight passages in six debates.",
    "reading": "The numbered boxes identify distinct claims and the question needed to support each. They are not measured frequencies, proof steps, or a ranking of religions. A successful argument for one claim does not automatically establish the others.",
    "inputs": [
      [
        "1",
        "Foundation or cause",
        "Why must there be this kind of source?"
      ],
      [
        "2",
        "Intelligence or agency",
        "Why a mind rather than an impersonal source?"
      ],
      [
        "3",
        "Purposes and goodness",
        "Why these preferences or moral attributes?"
      ],
      [
        "4",
        "Unlimited attributes",
        "Why without limits—and why this combination?"
      ],
      [
        "5",
        "Religious identification",
        "What distinguishes this revelation or tradition?"
      ]
    ],
    "width": 1187,
    "height": 1122
  },
  {
    "id": "p10-pairs",
    "title": "Only two of 21 repeated pairs reverse their lead",
    "scope": "43 debates; all repeated pairs in the comparable archive.",
    "reading": "Each row is one pair. A mark gives the first named person’s score minus the second’s in one meeting. Circles use the earlier procedure; squares use the later one. The line joins the smallest and largest margins. Red rows cross zero with strictly opposite leads. Overlapping marks can hide repeated identical margins. These are observed meetings, not uncertainty intervals.",
    "inputs": [
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Alex O'Connor",
          "Trent Horn"
        ],
        "meetings": 3,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 60,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Trent Horn vs Alex O'Connor: Did Jesus Rise From the Dead?",
            "id": "horn-oconnor-jesus-resurrection-2026",
            "first_score": 86,
            "second_score": 78,
            "first_minus_second": 8
          },
          {
            "number": 122,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Trent Horn vs Alex O'Connor: Does God Exist?",
            "id": "horn-oconnor-god-existence-2020",
            "first_score": 83,
            "second_score": 77,
            "first_minus_second": 6
          },
          {
            "number": 215,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Why Be a Christian? Trent Horn vs. Alex O'Connor",
            "id": "horn-oconnor-christian-belief-2022",
            "first_score": 84,
            "second_score": 74,
            "first_minus_second": 10
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 4,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Alex Malpass",
          "William Lane Craig"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 55,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "William Lane Craig vs Alex Malpass: Can Something Come From Nothing?",
            "id": "craig-malpass-kalam-nothing-2026",
            "first_score": 91,
            "second_score": 75,
            "first_minus_second": 16
          },
          {
            "number": 92,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "William Lane Craig vs Alex Malpass: Did the Universe Begin to Exist?",
            "id": "craig-malpass-universe-begin-exist-2020",
            "first_score": 90,
            "second_score": 79,
            "first_minus_second": 11
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 5,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Alex O'Connor",
          "Craig Biddle"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 23,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Alex O'Connor vs Craig Biddle: Is Morality Objective?",
            "id": "oconnor-biddle-objective-morality-2024",
            "first_score": 89,
            "second_score": 82,
            "first_minus_second": 7
          },
          {
            "number": 44,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Alex O'Connor vs Craig Biddle: Free Will - Do You Have It?",
            "id": "oconnor-biddle-free-will-2025",
            "first_score": 82,
            "second_score": 77,
            "first_minus_second": 5
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 2,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Alex O'Connor",
          "Jonathan McLatchie"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 109,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Jonathan McLatchie vs Alex O'Connor: Theism or Naturalism?",
            "id": "mclatchie-oconnor-theism-naturalism-reality-2022",
            "first_score": 83,
            "second_score": 74,
            "first_minus_second": 9
          },
          {
            "number": 120,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Jonathan McLatchie vs Alex O'Connor: Is Christianity True?",
            "id": "mclatchie-oconnor-christianity-true-2019",
            "first_score": 83,
            "second_score": 83,
            "first_minus_second": 0
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 9,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Alex O'Connor",
          "Max Baker-Hytch"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 104,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Alex O'Connor vs Max Baker-Hytch: The Argument for God From Reason",
            "id": "oconnor-baker-hytch-argument-from-reason-2020",
            "first_score": 82,
            "second_score": 84,
            "first_minus_second": -2
          },
          {
            "number": 251,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Alex O'Connor vs Max Baker-Hytch: Could God Be Evil?",
            "id": "oconnor-baker-hytch-evil-god-challenge-2021",
            "first_score": 84,
            "second_score": 83,
            "first_minus_second": 1
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 3,
        "strict_reversal": true
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Alex O'Connor",
          "Michael Jones"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 119,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Michael Jones vs Alex O'Connor: Does God Send People to Hell?",
            "id": "jones-oconnor-hell-2023",
            "first_score": 87,
            "second_score": 80,
            "first_minus_second": 7
          },
          {
            "number": 252,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Michael Jones vs Alex O'Connor: Would a loving God allow the evil and suffering found in our world?",
            "id": "jones-oconnor-evil-suffering-2020",
            "first_score": 85,
            "second_score": 74,
            "first_minus_second": 11
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 4,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Alex O'Connor",
          "William Lane Craig"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 1,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Alex O'Connor vs William Lane Craig: Does God Exist?",
            "id": "craig-oconnor-god-debate-2026",
            "first_score": 82,
            "second_score": 76,
            "first_minus_second": 6
          },
          {
            "number": 31,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Alex O'Connor vs William Lane Craig: Did Jesus Rise From the Dead?",
            "id": "oconnor-craig-resurrection-2023",
            "first_score": 88,
            "second_score": 86,
            "first_minus_second": 2
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 4,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Bart Ehrman",
          "Michael Licona"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 178,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Bart Ehrman vs Michael Licona: Who Wrote the Gospels?",
            "id": "ehrman-licona-who-wrote-gospels-2025",
            "first_score": 87,
            "second_score": 81,
            "first_minus_second": 6
          },
          {
            "number": 237,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Michael Licona vs Bart Ehrman: Can Historians Prove the Resurrection?",
            "id": "licona-ehrman-historians-prove-resurrection-2008",
            "first_score": 79,
            "second_score": 78,
            "first_minus_second": 1
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 5,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Bernardo Kastrup",
          "Susan Blackmore"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 188,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Bernardo Kastrup vs Susan Blackmore: What Is Consciousness?",
            "id": "kastrup-blackmore-consciousness-idealism-2023",
            "first_score": 83,
            "second_score": 86,
            "first_minus_second": -3
          },
          {
            "number": 259,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Bernardo Kastrup vs Susan Blackmore — Consciousness and illusion",
            "id": "kastrup-blackmore-conscious-illusion-2023",
            "first_score": 75,
            "second_score": 85,
            "first_minus_second": -10
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 7,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Blake Giunta",
          "Matt Dillahunty"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 266,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Matt Dillahunty vs Blake Giunta — Faith and Rational Justification",
            "id": "dillahunty-giunta-faith-rational-justification-2018",
            "first_score": 82,
            "second_score": 83,
            "first_minus_second": -1
          },
          {
            "number": 281,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Blake Giunta vs Matt Dillahunty — Did Jesus Rise from the Dead?",
            "id": "giunta-dillahunty-jesus-resurrection-2016",
            "first_score": 77,
            "second_score": 84,
            "first_minus_second": -7
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 6,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Christopher Hitchens",
          "Frank Turek"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 22,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Frank Turek vs Christopher Hitchens: Does God Exist?",
            "id": "turek-hitchens-god-existence-2008",
            "first_score": 81,
            "second_score": 74,
            "first_minus_second": 7
          },
          {
            "number": 26,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Frank Turek vs Christopher Hitchens: What Best Explains Reality?",
            "id": "turek-hitchens-reality-theism-atheism-2011",
            "first_score": 83,
            "second_score": 74,
            "first_minus_second": 9
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 2,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Christopher Tomaszewski",
          "Joseph Schmid"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 42,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Joe Schmid vs Chris Tomaszewski: Is Divine Simplicity True?",
            "id": "schmid-tomaszewski-divine-simplicity-2020",
            "first_score": 86,
            "second_score": 87,
            "first_minus_second": -1
          },
          {
            "number": 248,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Christopher Tomaszewski vs Joe Schmid: Classical Theism and Monotheism",
            "id": "tomaszewski-schmid-classical-theism-monotheism-2020",
            "first_score": 82,
            "second_score": 85,
            "first_minus_second": -3
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 2,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Frank Turek",
          "Michael Shermer"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 28,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Frank Turek vs Michael Shermer: What Best Explains Reality?",
            "id": "turek-shermer-reality-theism-atheism-2018",
            "first_score": 72,
            "second_score": 83,
            "first_minus_second": -11
          },
          {
            "number": 155,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Frank Turek vs Michael Shermer: Is Morality Better Explained by God or Science?",
            "id": "turek-shermer-morality-god-science-2015",
            "first_score": 76,
            "second_score": 79,
            "first_minus_second": -3
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 8,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Glen Scrivener",
          "Joe Folley"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 48,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Glen Scrivener vs Joe Folley: Morality, Evil, Consciousness, and Christian Narrative",
            "id": "scrivener-folley-hiddenness-evil-moral-narrative-2025",
            "first_score": 74,
            "second_score": 84,
            "first_minus_second": -10
          },
          {
            "number": 247,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Joe Folley vs Glen Scrivener: Goodness Without God",
            "id": "folley-scrivener-good-without-god-2025",
            "first_score": 76,
            "second_score": 85,
            "first_minus_second": -9
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 1,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Joe Folley",
          "Nathan Hawkins"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 73,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Nathan Hawkins vs Joe Folley: Do We Really Have Free Will?",
            "id": "hawkins-folley-free-will-compatibilism-2026",
            "first_score": 89,
            "second_score": 83,
            "first_minus_second": 6
          },
          {
            "number": 133,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Nathan Hawkins vs Joe Folley: Free Will, Compatibilism, and Idealism",
            "id": "hawkins-folley-free-will-idealism-2026",
            "first_score": 85,
            "second_score": 77,
            "first_minus_second": 8
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 2,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "John Lennox",
          "Peter Atkins"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 4,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "John Lennox vs Peter Atkins: Can Science Explain Everything?",
            "id": "lennox-atkins-science-explain-everything-2019",
            "first_score": 84,
            "second_score": 77,
            "first_minus_second": 7
          },
          {
            "number": 51,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "John Lennox vs Peter Atkins: Duelling Professors on Science and God",
            "id": "lennox-atkins-duelling-professors-2012",
            "first_score": 79,
            "second_score": 72,
            "first_minus_second": 7
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 0,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "John Lennox",
          "Richard Dawkins"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 121,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Richard Dawkins vs John Lennox: Has Science Buried God?",
            "id": "dawkins-lennox-science-buried-god-2017",
            "first_score": 76,
            "second_score": 82,
            "first_minus_second": -6
          },
          {
            "number": 202,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Is Belief in God a Delusion? Richard Dawkins vs. John Lennox",
            "id": "dawkins-lennox-god-delusion-2007",
            "first_score": 72,
            "second_score": 76,
            "first_minus_second": -4
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 2,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Jordan Peterson",
          "Sam Harris"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 124,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Sam Harris vs Jordan Peterson: God, Atheism, The Bible, Jesus",
            "id": "harris-peterson-god-atheism-bible-2018",
            "first_score": 78,
            "second_score": 84,
            "first_minus_second": -6
          },
          {
            "number": 239,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Jordan Peterson vs Sam Harris: Can Religious Narratives Ground Morality and Meaning?",
            "id": "harris-peterson-religious-narrative-morality-2018",
            "first_score": 75,
            "second_score": 81,
            "first_minus_second": -6
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 0,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Justin Schieber",
          "Randal Rauser"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 291,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Randal Rauser vs Justin Schieber — Does God Exist?",
            "id": "rauser-schieber-god-existence-2015",
            "first_score": 83,
            "second_score": 76,
            "first_minus_second": 7
          },
          {
            "number": 308,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Justin Schieber vs Randal Rauser — Religious Disagreement and God",
            "id": "schieber-rauser-religious-disagreement-2017",
            "first_score": 85,
            "second_score": 78,
            "first_minus_second": 7
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 0,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Matt Dillahunty",
          "Michael Jones"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 68,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Michael Jones vs Matt Dillahunty: Quantum Idealism and Demonstrability",
            "id": "jones-dillahunty-quantum-idealism-demonstrability-2026",
            "first_score": 86,
            "second_score": 69,
            "first_minus_second": 17
          },
          {
            "number": 100,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Michael Jones vs Matt Dillahunty: Reason to Believe in God?",
            "id": "jones-dillahunty-emergent-mind-god-2020",
            "first_score": 91,
            "second_score": 73,
            "first_minus_second": 18
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 1,
        "strict_reversal": false
      },
      {
        "speakers": [
          "Michael Licona",
          "Richard Carrier"
        ],
        "meetings": 2,
        "entries": [
          {
            "number": 130,
            "cohort": "earlier",
            "title": "Mike Licona vs Richard Carrier: Did Jesus Rise From the Dead?",
            "id": "licona-carrier-resurrection-history-2010",
            "first_score": 80,
            "second_score": 83,
            "first_minus_second": -3
          },
          {
            "number": 255,
            "cohort": "later",
            "title": "Mike Licona vs Richard Carrier — Did Jesus rise from the dead? (2004, formal rounds)",
            "id": "licona-carrier-resurrection-formal-rounds-2004",
            "first_score": 82,
            "second_score": 81,
            "first_minus_second": 1
          }
        ],
        "margin_range": 4,
        "strict_reversal": true
      }
    ],
    "width": 1548,
    "height": 1547
  },
  {
    "id": "p10-models",
    "title": "The opponent association depends on the comparison set",
    "scope": "Eight descriptive specifications; eligibility changes in several checks.",
    "reading": "Each dot is a fitted association, not a causal effect or uncertainty interval. Negative values mean a lower own score with a higher opponent average elsewhere. All meetings of the pair are excluded from that opponent average. The red final row also requires those outside scores to use the same procedure; its eligible sample is smaller. There are no error bars because sampling uncertainty is not estimated.",
    "inputs": [
      {
        "key": "speaker_only",
        "label": "Same person only",
        "appearances": 295,
        "speakers": 80,
        "debates": 188,
        "threshold": 3,
        "controls": [],
        "equal_person": false,
        "own_score_change_per_5_opponent_points": -0.42227502967294017,
        "within_correlation": -0.08846360956124773,
        "residual_opponent_sd": 2.863012215390133,
        "slope": -0.08445500593458803
      },
      {
        "key": "speaker_process_role",
        "label": "+ procedure and role",
        "appearances": 295,
        "speakers": 80,
        "debates": 188,
        "threshold": 3,
        "controls": [
          "cohort",
          "side"
        ],
        "equal_person": false,
        "own_score_change_per_5_opponent_points": -0.49346278111014447,
        "within_correlation": -0.10820639560275462,
        "residual_opponent_sd": 2.8460800247792193,
        "slope": -0.0986925562220289
      },
      {
        "key": "plus_broad_topic",
        "label": "+ broad topic",
        "appearances": 295,
        "speakers": 80,
        "debates": 188,
        "threshold": 3,
        "controls": [
          "cohort",
          "side",
          "topic"
        ],
        "equal_person": false,
        "own_score_change_per_5_opponent_points": -0.81856080835278,
        "within_correlation": -0.18187924658691124,
        "residual_opponent_sd": 2.7260925411314507,
        "slope": -0.163712161670556
      },
      {
        "key": "equal_person",
        "label": "Equal weight per person",
        "appearances": 295,
        "speakers": 80,
        "debates": 188,
        "threshold": 3,
        "controls": [
          "cohort",
          "side"
        ],
        "equal_person": true,
        "own_score_change_per_5_opponent_points": -0.384683072043976,
        "within_correlation": -0.10819465820586877,
        "residual_opponent_sd": 2.847706850332752,
        "slope": -0.0769366144087952
      },
      {
        "key": "opponent_min5",
        "label": "Opponent: 5+ other appearances",
        "appearances": 203,
        "speakers": 60,
        "debates": 145,
        "threshold": 5,
        "controls": [
          "cohort",
          "side"
        ],
        "equal_person": false,
        "own_score_change_per_5_opponent_points": -0.32624015423271424,
        "within_correlation": -0.06736715267964757,
        "residual_opponent_sd": 2.644792003792712,
        "slope": -0.06524803084654285
      },
      {
        "key": "earlier",
        "label": "Earlier procedure only",
        "appearances": 151,
        "speakers": 42,
        "debates": 93,
        "threshold": 3,
        "controls": [
          "side"
        ],
        "equal_person": false,
        "own_score_change_per_5_opponent_points": -0.5005203170492867,
        "within_correlation": -0.10454815519147738,
        "residual_opponent_sd": 2.656948233080779,
        "slope": -0.10010406340985734
      },
      {
        "key": "later",
        "label": "Later procedure only",
        "appearances": 82,
        "speakers": 31,
        "debates": 48,
        "threshold": 3,
        "controls": [
          "side"
        ],
        "equal_person": false,
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]